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Fall 2021 Elections

Political Watch Fall Election Edition #1

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Welcome to Political Watch Edition for the 1st week of the Campaign.

In this first week some things have changed;

Lee Li and running mate Martin Flores have dropped out of the Governor’s Race, we asked their campaign for a comment however we are yet to receive a reply.

The Governor’s debate was cancelled on short notice due to some unforeseen circumstances. 

The State Representative Debate went ahead as planned and was attended by about 50 people. All the representatives were given a chance to answer questions, however no debating period was allotted after the questions so this event was more of a platform Q&A, they were also asked about 

We spoke with Governor Candidates Paxton and Ford; here is what they had to say

Round 1 Polling

Weazel News over the past week has conducted some polling, The results are the following.

For the Governor Polling we found that 39.2% would prefer Stiletto as Governor, while 60.8% would prefer Paxton as Governor. We adjusted the results after Lee Li retired from the race and used their second preferences as their first preference. Most Lee Li voters put Stiletto as their second preference making the margin between Stiletto and Paxton smaller. 

For the Legislature, if voters had to pick only one candidate, this is how they would vote;

Becks Lawson 21.6%

Endeavour Jackson 21.6%

Mohn Nash 15.7%

James Nark 11.8%

William Benning 11.8%

Nikolai Stanislav 9.8%

Caster Taylor 7.8%

This voting method is one person preferred, in the actual election they are using a weighted method of preferencing so the results are purely a popularity test.

We asked the same number of voters to preference all seven candidates from Most preferred to least preferred, just like the actual election, the results were input into a weighted controlled computer model and the results are the following based on weighted distribution because of the small sample size.

Candidates: 7 with 5 Seats | 51 votes recorded requiring a Quota of 8.5 to win a seat

Endeavour Jackson11.000.000.000.000.000.00
Becks Lawson11.0011.680.000.000.000.00
Mohn Nash8.008.239.040.000.000.00
James Nark6.007.148.418.500.000.00
William Benning6.006.236.236.356.359.82
Nikolai Stanislav5.005.235.775.775.777.18
Caster Taylor4.004.004.464.884.880.00

Round two of the polls is now open, even if you have filled it out before you can do it again for this second round. The Poll can be found here https://tinyurl.com/fallwzpoll 

Polls Analysis 

With only two candidates in the Governor Election there really isn’t much analysis needed, The Stiletto campaign has really picked up their advertising schedule recently with more advertisements and posters being seen across the state, any form of advertisement is obviously beneficial. Paxton’s campaign has been more based around events and already established work that has been conducted since he was elected to the Legislature. Overall, we expect this race to be down close to the line, as voters’ political views are going to be the defining factor of who gets what vote. 

The State Representative Election has more candidates allowing more analysis. 

We found in the polling that if you preferred Endeavor Jackson as your 1st candidate, voters were more likely to pick James Nark and Becks Lawson then other candidates.

If voters preferred Becks Lawson as your 1st candidate, you were more likely to vote for Endeavor Jackson and Nikolai Stanislav as your second or third preference.

If voters preferred Mohn Nash as their first candidate they were more likely to vote Endeavour Jackson and Caster Taylor as their second or third candidate.

William Benning, Nikolai Stanislav and Caster Taylor voters all preferred Mohn Nash and Endeavour Jackson or Mohn Nash as their second candidate.

Compared Polling Results

  • Putting both the Governor and State Rep Results together shows a unique set of information.
  • People who preferred Stiletto as Governor never put Endeavour Jackson or James Nark as their first Representative Preference. However 27% of second preferences were cast towards Endeavour Jackson.
  • Paxton voters were more likely to put Endeavour Jackson as their first preference preference 
  • Most voters who preferred William Benning, voted for Stiletto in this first round. 
  • An equal number of Paxton and Stiletto voters, preferred Mohn Nash as their first candidate

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